Our community and how it is changing

Analyzing 11 major indicators of community wellbeing through Vital Signs

Most of us have seen the reports, and are aware of the predicted future growth for our community:

“Population jump of 35,800 forecasted for Kawartha Lakes by 2051.”

“Kawartha Lakes is experiencing significant growth, with the population projected to rise from roughly 83,000–86,000 residents in 2023-2024 to approximately 117,000–130,000 by 2051.”

“Kawartha Lakes is predicted to double in population over the next decade.”

Opportunities and challenges abound. How our community responds to both will shape the future for one and all.

City studies and the recently-completed Vital Signs report conducted by the Kawartha Community Foundation and the Kawartha Works Community Cooperative indicate that if the predicted increase in population over the next few years comes to fruition, growth will be primarily from two sources of the population – seniors and immigrants.

For close to two years, Vital Signs officials drew on publicly available data, local administrative sources, and community insights to offer a balanced, nonpartisan scan of wellbeing across Kawartha Lakes. The completed report was presented earlier this year to city council. The report was positively received, and city officials have given indication of using Vital Signs as a tool for future strategic planning and decision-making.

The report is comprised of 11 major indicators of community wellbeing. The initial indicator, “The Community and How It Is Changing,” addresses current and future challenges that a growing population entails.

Overall Kawartha Lakes’ population growth rate was 12 per cent from 2014 to 2024.

“Population growth has been driven by more people moving here, mostly from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where real estate and often cost of living is greater than it may be here,” according to Vital Signs. “Indications are that the people who are coming are mostly mid-career age with established and growing families, and older adults looking to retire here. There also has been some significant immigration in recent years.”

While those demographics may be increasing, the number of middle-aged residents is waning, though. The report points out that, “Unfortunately, we also see an outward migration among key workforce aged populations, with people ages 15 – 24 and 45 – 60 who migrate outside of Kawartha Lakes.”

In Kawartha Lakes, 28 per cent of residents are age 65 and older. Ontario’s average is less than 19 per cent. Despite a senior population that is 50 per cent greater than the provincial average, our municipality does not have official “Age-Friendly Community” status. Endorsed by the province, Age-Friendly Community (AFC) status is designed to create more accessible environments for people of all ages, abilities and backgrounds. Similar initiatives have been undertaken by local service providers over the years in recognition of our heavy senior population, yet no local organization or collective has to date attempted to bring all the players together for what would be a challenging, intensive exercise.

Earlier this year, the Southwestern Ontario Public Health Unit (St. Thomas-Woodstock region) achieved AFC status following several years of working toward the goal.

“It’s a real commitment of all of the service providing partners in the community,” says Meagan Lichti, public health nurse with the Southwestern Public Health Unit and one of the leads on the St. Thomas-Woodstock team. “It needs the commitment of all sorts of organizations, with the city’s support as well, of course. It takes a lot of mental energy to do the needs assessment and other work involved.”

What would be the benefits of achieving AFC status?

“It offers advantages to participating organizations in the sense that if you have a current needs assessment and strategy when it comes to applying for funding from different granting sources, it could very well move the application to the top of the consideration list,” Lichti said.

Vital Signs identified that another issue seniors face is a lack of affordable and appropriate housing.

“What’s missing is a range of centralized, small-format housing options designed to meet seniors’ unique needs. Unlike other demographic groups, seniors often prioritize safety, security, quiet, and accessibility. This stage of life calls for housing that supports stability and comfort – not necessarily multi-use or mixed-age developments that can overlook these essential considerations,” the report states.

Housing is not just an issue unique to the senior demographic. In the last couple of years, statistics show that there have been more immigrants to Kawartha Lakes than in the last 20 years combined. While two decades ago there were not any official “settlement services” to assist immigrant newcomers in acclimating to the community and finding employment and housing, the New Canadian Centre in Peterborough and Kawartha Lakes & Haliburton Integrated Immigrant Services Association (KLHIISA) are working hard to fill that void.

Geraldine Silva is a member of the executive team at KLHIISA. Like many immigrants who have chosen to come to our community from larger metropolitan regions, she has experienced the challenges of finding affordable housing here.

“Immigrants who are coming here to Kawartha Lakes are doing so for the ‘human needs’ – connections, safety, affordability. They seem to be fairly successful in finding employment, but housing is so expensive here,” Silva says. Many who have accessed KLHIISA services work locally but live somewhere else due to the lack of affordable housing in Kawartha Lakes. Silva speaks of the “isolation of immigrants – they may indeed be surrounded by people, but they are still really very much alone.”

Silva has appeared before Kawartha Lakes Council to describe the challenges that newcomers to the community can face and to appeal for financial consideration. To date, nothing has come to fruition, however.

“We need money from all levels of government – municipal, provincial, federal – to be more proactive.”

Challenges for newcomers to get properly settled in Kawartha Lakes are seen on a regular basis at VCCS Employment Services in Lindsay. Brenda Roxburgh, VCCS executive director, says finding and establishing strong social connections can take time.

“What brings people here? Partly the lifestyle, as it’s not as congested as the GTA. People come to Kawartha Lakes by choice, not by chance. But unfortunately, by the time they discover that some services are lacking or not available, it’s too late,” Roxburgh says. “There are indeed positives to our community. We have the ability to be a strong destination for people, but we need the things to draw them here, such as industry and good jobs.” 

Adequate transportation services for people of all ages also continues to be a challenge for our geographically large municipality. Despite some past attempts to connect communities throughout the city with regular public transit service, no regular service exists beyond Lindsay’s borders.

Shortfall of transportation services is “one of the biggest barriers to employment in our community,” according to Roxburgh.

Traditionally thought of as an organization providing services that assist seniors to live comfortably at home as long as possible, Community Care City of Kawartha Lakes (CCCKL) has expanded its services tremendously in the last couple of decades.

“With an aging population, Community Care is well positioned to have available services, but we need to continue working with funding partners and all government levels, and to advocate for increased funding,” says Ryan Alexander, CCCKL executive director. “Now, with an increasing immigrant population, Community Care’s current strategic plan calls out that we have to support everyone who experiences barriers to care.”

Those barriers can be income, minorities, mental health challenges, and more. That’s why CCCKL has methodically added services over the last 20 years that provide services to all ages and walks of life – a dental clinic, the Community Health Centre, hospice services – as a way of prioritising helping those with increasing needs in the community, regardless of age.

“I think the community’s going to have to evolve to support all people,” Alexander concludes.

As for the Kawartha Community Foundation’s role in meeting challenges that current and future growth brings, the foundation’s executive director Eric Smeaton prefers to look positively on the matter.

“The growth in our senior and immigrant populations is exactly where the foundation’s ‘constellation’ strategy comes to life,” Smeaton says. “For us, the benefit isn’t just about attracting new residents; it’s about the influx of social, intellectual, and financial capital. Our ‘new seniors’ often arrive with a lifetime of professional expertise, while our new neighbours bring global perspectives and entrepreneurial energy. The foundation’s role is to act as the connective tissue, ensuring these groups aren’t just moving to the community, but are woven into it.”

The coming population growth “is also a massive opportunity to diversify our investor base,” Smeaton adds. “Many of these newcomers arrive with a desire to plant deep roots and give back to the place they now call home. By becoming ‘Friend of the Foundation,’ they aren’t just donating – they are fast-tracking their civic integration.”

The foundation continues to conduct research for the evolving Vital Signs initiative, and to conduct a series of community presentations and conversations about the challenges and opportunities that are in store for Kawartha Lakes.