Seasonal forecast a double-edged sword for local farmers

Every year in early December, Kawartha Lakes farmers wait with bated breath for the Environment Canada generated seasonal weather forecast that will provide some insights into what the weather will look like for at least the next 30-60 days.

With that forecast in hand, those who make their living off the land can better plan for the early winter months and start formulating what spring might look like and when it might begin.

The forecast for this year indicates a range of weather patterns. Local farmers, including Barry Baxter and Ron Ashmore, are preparing for a winter season characterized by below-average temperatures, increased snowfall with extended accumulation, and a significantly delayed thaw.

“Winter has arrived much earlier this year,” said David Phillips, senior meteorologist for Environment and Climate Change Canada in a phone call with Kawartha Lakes Weekly. “Late November – early December has started off cold. We have had continuous all freezing days when at no time does the temperature rise above zero. We have had numerous days with high wind chill values. Temperatures are 5-7 degrees cooler than normal. This snow is here to stay with no thaw in sight.”

When asked what was causing the decidedly cooler winter weather, Phillips said the polar vortex which pumps cold air south out of Artic Canada has formed at least two months earlier this year and is having a real effect on the weather farmers have to deal with in Kawartha Lakes.

With the polar vortex already impacting local weather, Phillips is prepared to call with confidence that it will be a “white Christmas” and that the polar vortex will be bringing below normal temperatures and above average snow amounts well into January.

Phillips cautions that any meteorological predictions much beyond January are fraught with issues as between the presence of the polar vortex, La Nina, warming oceans and climate change that has raised average winter temperatures two degrees in the last 70 years there is a “climate tug-of-war” going on that could skew the weather in many different directions.

Baxter, a Kawartha Lakes beef farmer, and vice-president of the Kawartha Lakes-Haliburton Federation of Agriculture (KLHFA), tries to take as many positives away from the forecast as possible.

“First, the snow will act as insulation for the crops,” Baxter said in a telephone interview. “Second, the cold will kill bugs and many of the diseases that our livestock catch. Without the cold weather, bugs would be out of control. Third, with a snow layer already, there is less of a chance of a tough thick frost layer forming that would be hard for run-off to penetrate in the spring. With minimal frost, the snowmelt should soak in rather than be lost.”

Baxter added that if Environment Canada is correct and the weather gets cold and stays cold it will be good for his cattle.

“A barn is like a school classroom,” Baxter said. “All it takes is one sick animal and soon they are all sick. A winter where the temperatures have ups and downs is far worse for this than one where it is below freezing for a considerable period of time.”

Baxter did admit that extended periods of cold weather and wind chills like we have had so far this winter are tough on machines and farmers in general.

“Cold weather is hard on equipment” Baxter said. “Anything below freezing, tractors don’t want to start and hydraulics become problematic. Equipment has to idle and warmup longer at the cost of more fuel. You are also more likely to pull a muscle in December rather than July. You spend hours with cold hands and cold feet, and that is tough.”

Ward 6 Counc. Ron Ashmore, who operates a small farm with mixed breed dairy and beef cattle, said with the arrival of cold weather farmers must be aware of the specific needs of each animal they are caring for.

“Different breeds have different cold and heat tolerance levels,” Ashmore said. “For example, a Holstein or Jersey dairy cow requires more protection from the elements compared to a Hereford or other cattle breeds. During the cold, the diet for cattle must have sufficient energy including grain supplementation as well as good quality forages like dry hay or silage.”

Ashmore emphasized the importance of closely monitoring cattle diets during cold weather to prevent loss of body condition throughout the winter, which is particularly crucial for pregnant cows.

He added that with the arrival of cold weather, thought needs to be given to appropriate shelter for each breed of animal.

“As far as shelter, most dairy cattle are inside loose housing in the winter, but are outside for exercise and feeding,” Ashmore said. “Beef cattle are hardier and can be fed and wintered outdoors. They are in fact healthier outdoors (if fed correctly).”