338Canada.com has Conservatives polling locally at 47 percent

By Kirk Winter

If their predictions are correct, Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberals will win the most seats.

With less than a day before the votes are counted in the 2021 Canadian federal election, polling provided by 338Canada.com has Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberal Party winning the most seats.

Locally, the polling suggests Jamie Schmale will win Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock easily.

The classic bellwether riding of Peterborough-Kawartha has sided with the winning party since 1960 every time except once. It could see a photo finish with less than one per cent of the total vote separating the winner from the loser.

Coast to coast

On Sept. 19, 338Canada.com released the following numbers and what they may translate into in seat counts once the vote is tabulated.

Currently the Liberals have 32.1 percent support which is expected to translate into 146 seats, the Conservatives have 31.5 percent support which may generate 126 seats, the NDP sit third with 19.5 percent support and the possibility of 34 seats, with the Quebec-only Bloc with 7 percent popular support and the chance of winning 31 seats, the resurgent Peoples Party of Canada  sitting at 5.6 percent of the popular vote but predicted to win no seats, and the Greens polling at 3.4 percent and expected to win two seats.

When the polling is broken down by region, the Liberals have comfortable leads in Atlantic Canada, Quebec and Ontario. The Conservatives have a commanding lead in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and rural British Columbia. The NDP lead the polls in the Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut.

Pollsters will be closely watching support in Alberta and Saskatchewan for the Maverick Party which currently sits at 2 percent in each province. They will also be looking at the actual support the People’s Party of Canada receives with the party currently polling at 9 percent in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 7 percent in Alberta and 6 percent in British Columbia.

There is the general agreement that each vote that goes to either one of these parties is a vote the Conservatives will not be receiving. This may save a handful of western Liberals in Winnipeg, Edmonton and Vancouver from defeat by splintering the right-leaning vote.

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock 

338Canada.com has the Conservative Party of Canada with a 99 per cent chance of winning the riding.

The Conservatives are currently polling at 47 percent, the Liberals at 22 percent, the NDP at 18 percent, the PPC at 7 percent, the Greens at 4.6 percent and the Libertarians at 1 percent.

Without the PPC and Libertarian candidates in the race, Schmale’s final victory could be closer to the 60 percent pluralities set by his former boss Barry Devolin and backbencher Bill Scott.

Local political observers have noted that during this campaign Schmale has felt comfortable enough to leave the riding to campaign for neighbouring Conservative candidates who are in much tougher races.


Peterborough-Kawartha will be watched closely by political pundits of all parties considering it has elected members from all three main parties since 1960.

As of Sept. 19, the race is too close to call with the Conservatives leading with 35 per cent of the vote, the Liberals who currently hold the seat sitting at 34 per cent, the NDP at 20 per cent, the PPC at 5.5 per cent, the Greens at 4 per cent and independent candidates polling 1.1 per cent.

Maryam Monsef, the Liberal incumbent, and Michelle Ferreri, the Conservative challenger, are neck-and-neck in a campaign that has featured some negative advertising about who was born in the riding and who by extrapolation was not.  Monsef, an Afghani refugee, has found that her ethnicity has come in for real scrutiny in this election, particularly after her comments about the Taliban being “brothers” in any future decisions made about rebuilding Afghanistan. Ferreri, a media personality and social media influencer, has made her local roots clear in a series of political advertisements that have run extensively in the last 10 days before the vote.

This will be one of the ridings where the People’s Party of Canada will be the kingmaker. A solid showing by PPC candidate Paul Lawton will hand the riding to the Liberals, while if Lawton’s support stalls where it is right now Ferreri could conceivably take the riding from incumbent Monsef. 

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